نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 استاد علوم سیاسی پژوهشگاه علوم انسانی و مطالعات فرهنگی
2 دانشجوی رشته دکتری مطالعات سیاسی انقلاب اسلامی پژوهشکده امام خمینی (ره)
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Despite the defeat of the Islamic Caliphate and its end in Iraq and Syria, the grounds, factors and forces that have played an effective role in the formation of this group still remain strong. And they can change the current course of the destruction of ISIS. The purpose of this article is to investigate the future of ISIS in Iraq and Syria. The purpose of this article is to investigate the future of ISIS in Iraq and Syria. This research tries to identify the influential factors influencing the formation of ISIL in Iraq and Syria, based on the method of James Dither scriptwriting and the method of impact analysis, and by using the exploratory method and collecting data in the form of documents and libraries. And rewrite the future scenarios of ISIL in Iraq and Syria by extracting the causes of sectarian strife, regional rivalries, and the central power of Iraq and Syria as the driving force. Findings show that the best possible future for ISIL is to continue the current trend and the continuous growth of this trend until the complete destruction of ISIL, which is achieved through political and religious convergence and the reduction of social divisions at both the internal levels of Iraq and Syria and between the countries of the region , so that the more this convergence increases, the power of the central governments in Iraq and Syria will increase and reinforce the scenario of the destruction of ISIS, the scenario is favorable for Iran's national security. On the contrary, the less this convergence leads to an increase in the political and religious divide at the two internal levels of Iraq and Syria and the tension and conflict or even war between the countries of the region, the process of fighting ISIL is collapsing, reinforcing the worst-case scenario of a resurgence of ISIL, which the worst case scenario is for Iran's national security.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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