نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 کارشناسی ارشد آینده‌پژوهی دفاعی، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی دانشگاه فرماندهی و ستاد ارتش جمهوری اسلامی ایران، تهران، ایران
2 استادیار مدیریت راهبردی، دانشگاه علوم و فنون هوایی شهید ستاری، تهران، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
The United States has made many efforts to establish peace between the Arabs and the Zionist regime over many years. In recent years, the United States has created major challenges for the region by transferring the Zionist regime from the European area of its army to the area of CENTCOM command. Therefore, the current research aims to predict the political-security consequences of the presence of the Zionist regime in the command area of CENTCOM against Iran, drawing the scenarios resulting from this issue until 2028. The current research is applied in terms of purpose. In terms of nature and method, it is an exploratory description based on the GBN (Global Business Network) scenario writing method. The statistical population includes 35 professors of armed forces universities, commanders, and managers in strategic jobs. Identification of key factors and driving forces has been done using library studies, brainstorming methods (expert panel), and scoring key factors and driving forces was carried out using expert opinions. To draw the scenarios, the scenario analysis method based on seven steps of scenario writing with the approach of critical uncertainties was used, and with the opinion of experts and quantitative analysis, four possible, believable, and likely scenarios were finally created with the titles of "Establishment of a Convergent Regional Security-Political System" ( Miraculous Believable), "Regional Political-Stable Regional Security Agreement" (Optimistic Believable), "Regional Political-Security Stable Conflict" (Possibly Pessimistic) and "Regional Political-Security Nato" (Possibly Catastrophic)..
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
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