Analysis of Taliban Governance Scenarios: Domestic Factors, the Role of International Powers, and the Future of Afghanistan

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Ph.D Student in Political Science, Faculty of Law and Political Science, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran

2 Associate Professor of Political Science, Faculty of Law and Political Science, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran

Abstract

The fall of the republican regime and the return of the Taliban to power on December 14, 2019, was an unexpected development that exposed the failure of two decades of efforts to establish democracy and modern statehood in Afghanistan. The Taliban, representing extreme traditionalism and imposing severe restrictions on human rights, have created an ambiguous future for the governance of this country. This research seeks to identify the factors influencing the future of Taliban governance in Afghanistan and to predict potential scenarios. Using the scenario analysis method and qualitative research, data were collected and reviewed through the analysis of documents, reports, and interviews. The focus of this article is to analyze the future of Taliban governance, which encompasses the consolidation of power, internal resistance, and the influence of regional and international powers. The research hypothesis posits that internal factors, such as social and economic structures, along with international factors, including the positions of regional and global powers, shape the trajectory of Taliban governance. This path may involve the consolidation of the Taliban government, the rise of domestic resistance, or a shift in the role of international powers. The results of the research can enhance understanding of the challenges facing Afghanistan and enable domestic and foreign policymakers to make more informed decisions .

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References

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(https://doi.org/10.5129/001041517820934294).

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History

  • Receive Date: 31 March 2023
  • Revise Date: 29 November 2024
  • Accept Date: 11 October 2023

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