دانشگاه شاهد جامعه‌شناسی سیاسی جهان اسلام 2980-9371 12 24 2024 03 20 Presenting a model for measuring the impact of social media on Political Developments in Turkey ارائه مدلی برای سنجش تأثیر رسانه‌های اجتماعی بر تحولات سیاسی در ترکیه 1 26 4818 10.22070/iws.2025.19431.2388 FA محمودرضا رهبرقاضی دانشیار علوم سیاسی، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل، ایران. علی عارفیان جزی دانشجوی دکتری علوم سیاسی، دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصاد، دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران. 0009-0000-8732-1744 Journal Article 2023 12 01 One of the tools that has been able to greatly influence the political and cultural developments of different societies in recent years is social media. By providing a space for extensive communication, exchange of information, and expression of different thoughts and opinions, these media have played an important role in shaping the political behaviors of citizens. This research was conducted to investigate this issue using the latest wave of data from the Global Values ​​Survey on Turkey. In this regard, the secondary data statistical analysis method and SPSS software were used to answer the research questions, and they were analyzed using statistical methods. The descriptive results of the research show that the level of social media use among Turkish citizens is high, their tendency towards secular and emancipatory values ​​is low, and their tendency towards democracy is high. The inferential results also indicate that, firstly, social media in Turkey has had a negative and significant effect on democracy and has reduced people's tendency towards democracy. Secondly, the results indicate that although social media increases and strengthens citizens' tendency towards democracy through the mediating variable of emancipatory values, the same media negatively affects democracy and reduces citizens' tendency towards democracy through the mediating variable of secular values.<br />Extended Abstract<br />Social media has become one of the most important factors influencing political and cultural developments in societies in the last two decades, and its role in strengthening or weakening democracy has become a controversial issue in the literature of political science and communication. The present study aims to provide a model for measuring the impact of social media on democratic political culture in Turkey and attempts to examine this impact not only directly, but also through two mediating variables: “liberation values” and “secular values”. The choice of Turkey as a case study is important because this country has experienced significant fluctuations in the democratization process over the last two decades; in such a way that after democratic growth in the 2000s, it has faced a downward trend in democracy indicators since the 2010s. This situation provides a suitable context for analyzing the dual function of social media.<br />The theoretical framework of the research is developed using actor-network theory, mediatization of politics theory, network governance theory, and Castells’s network society perspective. Based on these approaches, social media are not simply neutral tools for transmitting messages, but rather play an active role as a network of human and non-human actors (users, algorithms, platforms, and political institutions) in shaping public opinion and political culture. Also, relying on Inglehart and Welzel’s value transformation theory, it is assumed that emancipatory values ​​(including individual autonomy, gender equality, the right to choose, and acceptance of citizens’ voices) and secular-rational values ​​can mediate the path of social media’s impact on democracy.<br />The research method is quantitative and based on the analysis of secondary data from the seventh wave of the Global Values ​​Survey (2020) in Turkey. The sample size was 2415 Turkish citizens, and the data were analyzed using SPSS software and the bootstrap path analysis method (Preacher and Hayes). The independent variable was the amount of social media use for news; the mediating variables were emancipatory values ​​and secular values; and the dependent variable was democratic political culture (based on support for free elections, civil liberties, equal rights, and opposition to authoritarianism).<br />Descriptive findings show that the amount of social media use among Turkish citizens is above average. In contrast, the average of emancipatory values ​​and secular values ​​was assessed to be below average, indicating the continued weight of traditional values ​​in Turkish society. However, the average tendency towards democratic political culture was relatively high, indicating the existence of democratic attitudes at the societal level.<br />The analytical results show that social media has a direct and significant negative effect on democracy; That is, the increase in the use of these media has been accompanied by a decrease in the tendency towards democratic political culture. This finding is consistent with views that emphasize the role of social media in spreading polarization, spreading misinformation, and weakening public trust. However, the mediation analysis shows that the effect of social media on democracy is not uniform and simple. Specifically, social media has a positive and significant effect on the tendency towards democracy by reinforcing emancipatory values, but it has a negative and significant effect on democracy by reinforcing secular values. Therefore, the function of social media in Turkey is dual and depends on the value paths that are activated.<br />The coefficient of determination of the model shows that the included variables explain about 4.7% of the variance in democracy; therefore, a major part of the changes in democracy are related to other structural, institutional, and economic factors. However, the significance of the direct and indirect paths indicates that social media, as one of the new cultural-communication variables, plays a role in shaping democratic attitudes.<br />Overall, the research findings show that the impact of social media on democracy in Turkey is neither entirely positive nor entirely negative, but rather conditional and multifaceted. These media can help deepen democratic culture by strengthening emancipatory values, but at the same time, they can weaken it through some value developments and political-institutional contexts. Therefore, the impact of social media on democracy depends on the social context, the level of institutionalization of democracy, and the type of interaction between technology, values, and power structure. This result emphasizes the need for more case studies and avoiding generalizations about the relationship between social media and democracy. یکی از ابزارهایی که در سال‌های اخیر توانسته است به‌شدت بر تحولات سیاسی و فرهنگی جوامع مختلف تأثیرگذار باشد، رسانه‌های اجتماعی هستند. این رسانه‌ها با فراهم آوردن فضایی برای ارتباطات گسترده، تبادل اطلاعات و بروز افکار و نظرات مختلف، نقش مهمی در شکل‌دهی به رفتارهای سیاسی شهروندان ایفا کرده‌اند. این پژوهش به‌منظور بررسی این امر با استفاده از موج آخر داده‌های پیمایش ارزش‌های جهانی درباره کشور ترکیه صورت گرفته است. در این راستا، به‌منظور پاسخ به سؤالات پژوهش از روش تحلیل آماری داده­های ثانویه و نرم­افزار اس.پی.اس.اس استفاده شده است و با استفاده از روش‌های آماری تحلیل شده‌اند. نتایج توصیفی پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که میزان استفاده از رسانه­های اجتماعی در میان شهروندان ترکیه بالا، گرایش آن‌ها به ارزش­های سکولار و رهایی پایین و تمایل آن‌ها به دموکراسی بالا است. همچنین نتایج استنباطی حاکی از آن است که اولاً، رسانه‌های اجتماعی در کشور ترکیه تأثیر منفی و معناداری بر دموکراسی داشته‌اند و باعث کاهش گرایش مردم به دموکراسی گشته‌اند. ثانیاً، نتایج حاکی از آن است که هرچند رسانه‌های اجتماعی از طریق متغیر میانجی ارزش‌های رهایی باعث افزایش و تقویت گرایش شهروندان به دموکراسی می‌شوند؛ اما همین رسانه‌ها از طریق متغیر میانجی ارزش‌های سکولار بر دموکراسی تأثیر منفی می‌گذارند و گرایش شهروندان به دموکراسی را کاهش می‌دهند. https://iws.shahed.ac.ir/article_4818_e88f243bf341ded9b4ced444795c3f17.pdf